Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Lesson Learnt -1

In EW study, it always pays to co-relate the labels with momentum studies--- the most simple example is that of Price-RSI divergence when a wave is nearing its end.
I have been doing it with Hour and 15 minute charts and found it very useful in finding out the tops and bottoms many times.
But now I failed to find the bottom and was very convinced in my belief that bottom for B=WXY retracing A=4531-5629=1098 was found at 4988.
The main reasons were:
1. Ostensible completion of Y as a 3 wave form;
2.At 4988, 61% of A was retraced;
3.On hourly charts + cross-over and move into positive territory was indicating further continuation of upmove:
Then what is that one indicater that would have told us that retracement is not yet fully done?
I think for this degree of wave, my relying upon the Hour Chart proved to be my undoing.
For the retracement of this degree to be complete I should have checked the Daily Charts---

And the most elementary part in the daily chart- RSI- was not even in oversold zone.
And I was saying that B is complete---- quite stupid.
So now when we reach the end of newly labeled Yc( not even started as yet), We shall re-check this simple RSI before concluding.

Raghu